The NSW Department of Planning's latest Metropolitan Development Program report gives the official figures on the amount of land available in Sydney for new housing. This information is important in understanding Sydney's housing market and how Sydney's housing needs can be met into the future.
Currently, there are 1.6 million dwellings in Sydney. By 2036, an additional 770,000 dwellings need to be built to cater for an extra 1.5 million people.
It is expected that only 30% of these new dwellings will be in greenfields areas. The lion's share of additional dwellings -- 70% of the total -- will be in existing parts of Sydney.
This may appear to be an ambitious target. Yet the Department of Planning claims that in the last 10 years, 79% of Sydney's new dwellings have been built in existing urban areas.
But shouldn't the NSW government be concentrating on the release of more greenfields lands and so drive down house prices, you might ask?
The MDP report provides information unlikely to be promulgated by property industry lobbyists.
A close reading of the MDP report shows the problem is not the rate that land is released for new housing, but the rate at which released land is made available by property developers. The MDP report shows that the amount of rezoned land ready for housing construction is the highest since records began. 30,176 lots are ready for subdivision immediately. Land rezoned but not yet serviced by the developers will yield another 38,469 lots. On top of these, land for a further 111,920 dwellings has been identified in the North West and South West Growth Centres while a further release of land for 11,500 new dwellings is being planned in North Wyong.
The figures show that a substantial supply of greenfields land is ready for the construction of new housing while an even greater reserve supply is in the pipeline.
Checking the MDP report's figures against ABS data on new dwelling approvals confirms the report's claim that the rate of land release in Sydney isn't a problem. ABS data show that of 18,375 new dwelling approvals for Sydney in 2007-8, just 6686 involved houses. The rest were apartments and the like. In 2008-9, there were 14,013 new dwelling approvals for Sydney but only 6038 of these were for houses.
So the ABS data tell us that the supply of land in Sydney is very much ahead of the rate of house construction. So where's the problem?
Lobbyists for the property industry say government charges need to be lowered to encourage housing construction. But what if government charges aren't the problem? What if the desire to live on Sydney's fringes is fading. What if people now judge the edge of the city to be far away, the cost of commuting too high, the daily battle with road congestion too infuriating? And what if land owners are banking their land until prices rise not fall?
Have we reached a stalemate between what buyers want and what sellers are offering?
Complex questions here need answers. The MDP report's largely unreported figures shed some light on them, for me at least. But more information is needed.
Unfortunately, though, daily rants from the property industry lobby, and the generous reception given them by the metropolitan media, stymie quality information flows and crush proper debate.
Building a liveable city for 7 million residents in 25 years time is a big deal. Getting the property development industry right is a crucial ingredient, while a cold bath for property development lobbyists would undoubtedly help.
Phillip O'Neill is Professor and Director, Urban Research Centre, The University of Western Sydney.
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